The Dogecoin worth is at present up by roughly 17% for the reason that December 31 low and the rebound is beginning to look much less like a dead-cat bounce and extra like a regime change, based on crypto analyst Cantonese Cat, who factors to a transparent shift in how DOGE is buying and selling inside its Bollinger Bands on the day by day chart.
The setup issues now as a result of worth has moved from months of lower-band strain into the higher half of the vary, usually the earliest inform that development conduct is rotating.
Cantonese Cat’s newest day by day view (Binance) frames the transfer by means of Bollinger Band positioning slightly than pattern-chasing. Because the analyst put it: “DOGE day by day exhibits a transparent development change that’s straightforward to see once you see the way it was driving on the decrease half of the Bollinger band for months however now has a transparent change in character.”
That “character” is seen within the band mechanics. DOGE closed round $0.1405 on the print proven, now buying and selling above the 20-day foundation line close to $0.1348 after spending a lot of the prior stretch leaning into the decrease half of the envelope. The higher band is close to $0.1564 and the decrease band close to $0.1132.
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Within the analyst’s framing, the premise line turns into the near-term “line within the sand” for whether or not it is a real development flip or just a volatility enlargement that fades. Holding above it retains worth within the higher half of the bands, the place traits sometimes behave in another way than they do throughout lower-band rides.
Weekly And Month-to-month Chart Assist The Thesis
Zooming out, Cantonese Cat’s weekly chart (Dec. 20) casts the broader construction as an Elliott-style sequence: a accomplished Wave 1 advance adopted by a Wave 2 correction. The analyst wrote: “We’ve already had a 13 month bear marketplace for DOGE, with my working speculation of this being seemingly a wave 2 correction previous to wave 3 explosion. All the purpose why this will play out is that it doesn’t really feel seemingly proper now, and also you need me to cease posting.”
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The degrees on the chart are specific. DOGE is sitting between the 0.382 retracement close to $0.1177 and the 0.5 stage close to $0.1542, with larger retracement markers at roughly $0.2021 (0.618), $0.2477 (0.707), $0.2968 (0.786), and $0.3732 (0.886).
Above that, the 1.0 stage is labeled close to $0.4844, with extensions reaching roughly $0.9029 (1.272), $1.2497 (1.414), $1.9934 (1.618), $4.7793 (2.0), and $8.9077 (2.272), the latter aligning with the analyst’s repeatedly cited “$9 area” goal for this cycle.
On Jan. 9, Cantonese Cat paired DOGE’s month-to-month chart with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), arguing a recurring bull-phase rhythm: “DOGE has all the time been about 2-4 months behind IWM throughout the bull section.”The comparability highlights prior cases the place IWM’s breakout conduct preceded DOGE’s main upside phases, implying DOGE’s present enchancment might be learn as a delayed echo if the template holds.
General, the near-term query is whether or not DOGE can preserve closing above the day by day Bollinger foundation (~$0.1348) and keep away from slipping again into the lower-half posture that outlined the prior months. On the upside, a break above the higher band area (~$0.1564) and the 0.5 Fib ($0.1542) is essential for additional upside.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.13674.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
