The U.S. nationwide debt surpassed $38 trillion in early November, and denoting the inventory in bitcoin reveals a bigger transfer than the underlying BTC value since January 20.
Based on the U.S. Treasury’s Debt to the Penny dataset, whole public debt stood at $38.118 trillion as of November 6, up about $1.1 trillion since August 12 and above the late October breach of $38 trillion that drew new headlines.
The $37 trillion threshold first made information in mid-August, then the following trillion arrived inside weeks as issuance continued.
Over the identical interval, spot BTC has typically traded inside the $100,000 to $105,000 band this month, with a January 20 shut of $102,082.
Subsequently, the unit-of-account lens revealed a bigger transfer in debt than in value at first of the week. The inauguration day reference value is $102,082, putting at present’s stage inside 10% of that mark.
Sani from TimechainIndex calculated that, at a working value of $103,500 per BTC, the present U.S. public debt equates to roughly 368.3 million BTC, calculated as $38.118 trillion divided by the BTC value.
On January twentieth, when @realDonaldTrump took workplace, Bitcoin was priced at $103,500, the identical value it’s buying and selling at at present.
Throughout that point, the U.S. Nationwide Debt rose by $1.9 trillion, reaching $38.126 trillion.
In Bitcoin phrases, the debt grew by 18.566 million BTC, totaling… pic.twitter.com/du0NucMFa4
— Sani | TimechainIndex.com (@SaniExp) November 13, 2025
With the debt inventory rising by roughly $1.9 trillion since January 20, valuing the change at $103,500 per BTC yields roughly 18.36 million BTC.
As Bitcoin has fallen over 6% since Sani posted his perception, this may work out to 19.8 million BTC at $96,000.
With post-halving issuance close to 450 BTC per day, or about 164,250 BTC per yr, that single ten-month enhance maps to greater than a century of latest provide.
Flows into and out of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs add an incremental strain valve.
U.S. spot ETF move tallies have been combined by way of early November, which issues for the mechanical hyperlink between demand, value, and the “debt expressed in BTC” ratio.
On the fiscal facet, Treasury continues to be elevating internet new money at quarterly refundings. In November, the Treasury introduced $125 billion of issuance to refund $98.2 billion coming due, elevating $26.8 billion of latest money. Based on the U.S. Division of the Treasury’s quarterly refunding assertion and TBAC minutes, ongoing SOMA runoff and a heavy maturity schedule keep a gentle financing want.
The easy math highlights how a fixed-supply asset interacts with a rising legal responsibility. Even when BTC trades at $200,000, the debt inventory would nonetheless equal about 191 million BTC utilizing the present $38.118 trillion stage.
That’s an order of magnitude above at present’s circulating provide of roughly 19 to twenty million cash. On-chain provide inches greater predictably, whereas the debt numerator can add lots of of billions inside weeks, relying on issuance and money balances.
Sensitivity to BTC value is simple to border, and the desk under exhibits how the “debt in BTC” quantity compresses as value rises, holding the most recent debt tally fixed and rounding to at least one decimal place for readability.
BTCUSDU.S. Debt (in BTC)$80,000~476.5 million BTC$100,000~381.2 million BTC$103,500~368.3 million BTC$120,000~317.7 million BTC$150,000~254.1 million BTC$200,000~190.6 million BTC
A sensible rule of thumb close to present ranges is that every $10,000 transfer in BTC modifications the “debt in BTC” determine by roughly 32 to 36 million BTC, a 9–10% shift that’s nonlinear throughout the curve.
The framing shouldn’t be a declare that the US might or would repay obligations in bitcoin; reasonably, it’s a unit-of-account lens that compares a fixed-issuance asset with a fiscal path pushed by coverage and macroeconomic situations.
The lens can also be delicate to this point alignment. Treasury’s every day debt information posts with a lag, so matching the identical calendar day for the debt shut and the BTCUSD shut issues for precision. Completely different value sources will range by 1–2%, so stating the supply in every calculation helps hold the arithmetic auditable.
Ahead, the trail of the numerator and denominator will resolve whether or not the chart bends decrease. On the numerator, the Treasury’s time period construction selections and internet new money wants will decide rollover depth and the curiosity value path into 2026.
Based on the refunding assertion, roughly 31% of marketable debt has been maturing inside 12 months in latest quarters, with a mean maturity of practically six years. This combine retains invoice share and coupon sizing in focus if yields maintain close to present ranges.
On the denominator, ETF move regimes can shift rapidly, and sustained optimistic flows would help spot demand, which mechanically reduces the “debt in BTC” ratio. Week-to-week swings stay frequent as funds and advisers rebalance.
The macro overlay from price range projections leans towards bigger curiosity prices within the baseline. The Congressional Price range Workplace 2025 to 2035 outlook exhibits internet curiosity rising towards about 4% of GDP by 2035, with debt held by the general public projected to succeed in round 156% of GDP by 2055 absent coverage modifications.
Based on the Committee for a Accountable Federal Price range’s abstract of the CBO baseline, near-term actual progress below 2% and inflation drifting towards 2% go away the nominal GDP denominator and not using a sturdy enhance, which reinforces the arithmetic of a gentle or greater “debt in BTC” studying except value lifts or deficits compress.
Replicating the mathematics is simple. Pull the most recent Whole Public Debt Excellent from the Treasury’s Debt to the Penny portal, pull a same-day BTCUSD shut from a constant index, then compute ‘Debt in BTC’ as DebtUSD divided by BTCUSD.
For issuance context, use 450 BTC per day post-halving. This technique yields the 368.3 million BTC determine at a $103,500 value on a $38.118 trillion debt base, and the roughly 18.36 million BTC equal of the year-to-date enhance when mapped on the similar value.
What to observe over the following quarter is the combination at Treasury’s auctions, any change in internet new money targets, the evolution of ETF flows, and the next CBO updates as FY26 tax debates resume.
A transfer in any of these inputs will present up in both the numerator or the denominator.
Based on the Treasury’s November assertion, the present refunding raised $26.8 billion in new money whereas refunding $98.2 billion coming due.
