Bitcoin (BTC) holding patterns recommend a possible resumption of the uptrend beginning in late September 2025, as long-term accumulation knowledge reveals evolving market dynamics pushed by institutional adoption and coverage catalysts.
CryptoQuant Korean Group Supervisor Crypto Dan’s evaluation reveals that the present cycle differs from earlier bull markets attributable to prolonged timeframes and flattening momentum slopes.
The proportion of Bitcoin held for over one 12 months based mostly on realized market cap demonstrates the present cycle’s distinctive traits in comparison with earlier phases.
Not like previous cycles, the place sharp surges led to fast peaks, institutional adoption by spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and nation-state purchases has prolonged the bull market’s period whereas step by step flattening the uptrend’s slope.
Market momentum faces periodic stalls when capital flows shift towards altcoins, a sample that has repeated a number of instances throughout the present cycle. It contrasts with 2023-2024, when Bitcoin dominated market consideration earlier than capital started migrating to various cryptocurrencies.
Favorable backdrop
Crypto Dan famous that September charge reduce expectations align with Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns and technical indicators.
Polymarket merchants at present place 81% odds on a 25 foundation level Federal Reserve charge reduce on the September FOMC assembly, offering a possible catalyst for threat asset appreciation.
The evaluation additionally anticipates extra momentum from the anticipated approvals of altcoin ETFs in October.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart acknowledged in April that the majority crypto ETF functions face closing deadlines in October, making it the seemingly approval month for spot altcoin merchandise.
This timeline creates a good coverage window for crypto markets as they enter the autumn season.
Mixed with seasonal patterns that present Bitcoin’s power in autumn months, the convergence of dovish financial coverage and regulatory readability positions the marketplace for renewed upward momentum following the present consolidation section.
Prolonged cycle traits
Institutional adoption essentially altered Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics in comparison with the retail-driven phases that preceded it.
The introduction of spot ETFs and company treasury adoption created extra secure demand flows however prolonged the cycle’s period. The evaluation steered these structural adjustments assist sustained bull market situations regardless of periodic consolidation phases.
Given the favorable coverage backdrop and growth of institutional infrastructure, any extra corrections throughout the transition interval may current engaging alternatives for accumulation.
The mix of charge cuts, ETF approvals, and seasonal components helps an optimistic market outlook for fall and winter 2025.
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