Analyst Weekly, October 27, 2025
Earnings Season, So Far
Early Q3 outcomes have typically are available higher than anticipated, with top-line progress enhancing throughout most sectors. Roughly 85% of S&P 500 corporations have crushed expectations thus far, the very best tempo in 4 years. Estimated gross sales progress rose between July and October in 10 of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, signaling wholesome demand. Financials, tech, and discretionary names are main the cost, whereas utilities stay the lone tender spot.
That stated, the margin image is extra combined. Rising prices and wage pressures may weigh on earnings, at the same time as corporations proceed to beat on income. Up to now, EPS estimates haven’t moved a lot larger, suggesting buyers are ready for stronger affirmation earlier than repricing expectations. After a giant fairness run-up this yr, markets may have earnings to catch as much as valuations. Total, early indicators are encouraging, however sustaining this momentum will rely upon.
This week may determine whether or not the bull market retains charging or pauses for breath. 5 giants, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple, collectively make up 1 / 4 of the S&P 500 and can report outcomes mid-week. Total, 44% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization will likely be reporting outcomes this week. Buyers are zeroed in on their AI methods: the size of spending and, crucially, when it begins to repay. Massive Tech’s mixed capex may high $420 billion subsequent yr, a lot of it tied to AI infrastructure. Up to now, income progress in cloud and digital adverts has justified optimism, however revenue progress throughout the “Magnificent Seven” is slowing from 27% final quarter to about 14%. With valuations stretched, any cracks within the AI or earnings story may check the market’s rally.
Fed to Finish QT and Lengthen Fee Cuts
The Federal Reserve seems able to shift from tightening to assist mode. With the labor market softening and inflation easing towards goal, we anticipate policymakers to sign further fee cuts by year-end and a proper finish to QT. Financial institution reserves as a share of GDP have fallen sharply, tightening liquidity and forcing short-term charges larger than the Fed’s goal. Ending QT would assist stabilize funding markets and ease strain on credit score.
Markets have already begun pricing in a rate-cutting cycle, with swap charges trending decrease by autumn. The coverage pivot may present reduction for small- and mid-cap shares, which have lagged throughout QT, and assist broader market sentiment heading into 2026, particularly if commerce tensions proceed to chill.
Markets Guess on a US-China Commerce Truce Amid Coverage Crosscurrents
Markets are positioning for a constructive consequence from subsequent week’s US-China summit, as each side sign progress towards easing commerce tensions.Negotiators have reached preliminary consensus on points together with export controls, fentanyl, and transport levies, whereas the US has dropped threats of 100% tariffs.
Preliminary market response displays optimism that neither chief desires to destabilize the worldwide economic system. Nonetheless, buyers stay alert to dangers: China might press Washington to make clear its Taiwan stance, whereas rare-earth provide and tech coverage stay leverage factors. The broader backdrop is supportive: we anticipate the upcoming Fed fee cuts and an finish to quantitative tightening to spice up danger urge for food. If talks yield a tariff truce and soybean deal, cyclical and China-sensitive sectors may lengthen good points, reinforcing the market’s “soft-landing” narrative.
No One Can Ignore Massive Tech
We’re heading into probably the most eventful weeks of the yr. 5 US tech giants are set to report their quarterly outcomes: Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft on Wednesday, adopted by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. Collectively, they symbolize round 1 / 4 of the S&P 500, a placing instance of how extremely concentrated the US market has turn into.
Up to now, the US earnings season has been operating positively, and the seasonal sample additionally argues in opposition to any main detrimental surprises. Nonetheless, buyers ought to anticipate elevated volatility throughout this part. Volatility, nevertheless, mustn’t at all times be considered as a warning signal, it’s typically a pure companion of an intact uptrend.
Can Microsoft Break Its July Excessive?
The Microsoft inventory gained 2.1% final week, closing at $523.61. Whereas the all-time excessive from July 31 at over $560 has not but been reached, the hole has narrowed noticeably. After the file excessive, the inventory quickly fell to $492, a decline of about 12%. Due to the latest restoration, the loss has now been lowered to round 7%.
The long-term uptrend stays intact, and from a technical perspective, a lot factors to a continuation of the rally. One other push towards the file excessive appears attainable. Nonetheless, if the inventory experiences a short-term pullback, the correction may initially lengthen towards the assist zones between $482–488 or $461–466. These areas are thought of technically related ranges (Truthful Worth Gaps).
Microsoft, weekly chart. Supply: eToro
US Sanctions Push Brent Costs Larger – Technical Resistance Stays
Brent crude recovered 6.5% final week to $65.16. The set off was the US sanctions in opposition to Russia’s largest oil producers, which have heightened issues about potential provide disruptions.
Nonetheless, a have a look at the weekly chart reveals that oil costs nonetheless face a number of technical resistance ranges. The mere avoidance of a decrease low is just not sufficient to finish the long-standing downtrend.
About 5 weeks in the past, after reaching a excessive of $69.89, a brand new wave of promoting started. This excessive now represents the important thing hurdle for the bulls. Patrons have additionally failed a number of instances on the $70 mark again in July.
Solely a sustained breakout above these ranges, ideally confirmed by a weekly shut, would considerably brighten the technical image. Till then, the oil market stays susceptible to renewed sell-offs.
Oil (Brent), weekly chart. Supply: eToro
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