Timothy Peterson’s market simulation reveals a 50% probability Bitcoin hits $140K in October.
Bitcoin just lately hit $126K, needing a 14.7% rise to achieve $140K.
Different analysts, nonetheless, notice doubtless short-term pullbacks earlier than potential sustained features.
Economist Timothy Peterson has projected that Bitcoin may attain $140,000 earlier than the tip of October, citing data-driven simulations that point out a 50% likelihood of the world’s largest cryptocurrency closing the month above that mark.
The evaluation, grounded in additional than a decade of Bitcoin’s historic value behaviour, means that half of the cryptocurrency’s potential October features could have already got occurred.
Knowledge-driven prediction, not hypothesis
Peterson’s projection, shared on X on October 7, 2025, was based mostly on “tons of of simulations” utilizing Bitcoin’s day by day value knowledge since 2015.
“There’s a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes the month above $140K,” he wrote, including that there’s a 43% probability it may end under $136,000.
In line with Peterson, the forecast is solely statistical, not influenced by sentiment or subjective opinion.
He emphasised that the outcomes had been “based mostly purely on actual knowledge, not human emotion or biased opinion,” designed to mirror Bitcoin’s historic volatility and cyclical rhythm.
On the time of his evaluation, Bitcoin was buying and selling at round $122,000, having cooled barely after setting a brand new all-time excessive of $126,200 earlier within the week.
Reaching $140,000 would require a roughly 14.7% acquire from present ranges, a transfer that aligns intently with Bitcoin’s common October efficiency over the previous decade.
Historic knowledge from CoinGlass reveals that October has been Bitcoin’s second-best month since 2013, usually delivering features of about 20.75%.
October’s historic significance for Bitcoin
Peterson defined that “Bitcoin’s efficiency in October isn’t ‘arrange’ by September, it’s arrange all through the complete yr.”
Bitcoin’s efficiency in October is not “arrange” by September, its arrange all through the complete yr.
This chart plots Jan–Sept returns vs. October returns since 2015. The stronger Bitcoin performs by the primary 9 months, the stronger October tends to be. October has… pic.twitter.com/MLtqz5znkD
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 2, 2025
The economist linked Bitcoin’s seasonal energy to broader monetary patterns, resembling the tip of third-quarter portfolio rebalancing, the beginning of fiscal yr planning, and the strategy of year-end reporting home windows for funding funds.
These components, he urged, create beneficial situations for renewed capital inflows into Bitcoin and different threat property.
Whereas Peterson’s mannequin affords a probability-based outlook, he cautioned that markets don’t all the time conform completely to historic patterns.
Bitcoin’s previous behaviour has sometimes diverged from expectations even when knowledge indicated excessive confidence ranges.
Nonetheless, he maintains that the mannequin offers a “clear, probability-based image” of the place Bitcoin’s worth is almost certainly to maneuver within the quick time period.
Market sentiment leans bullish
Peterson’s forecast comes as market sentiment round Bitcoin stays typically optimistic.
Crypto analysts resembling Jelle and Matthew Hyland have echoed bullish outlooks in current days, highlighting Bitcoin’s profitable retest of earlier highs and suggesting that momentum may push costs additional upward.
Earlier this week, Jelle posted, “It’s undoubtedly over for bears. Ship it greater,” whereas Hyland famous that “the stress is constructing.”
Nonetheless, not all voices available in the market are calling for a right away surge.
Analyst Ardi, identified for his technical commentary, identified that Bitcoin typically experiences a short-term pullback of round 5% after hitting new all-time highs.
Such strikes, Ardi mentioned, are usually adopted by a interval of choppiness and consolidation—a sample that might play out once more earlier than any sustained rally.
$BTC likes to dump ~5% after it hits new ATHs, usually adopted by a interval of chop and consolidation.
Remainder of the market almost certainly chops with it. pic.twitter.com/iZMqaUV6Qc
— Ardi (@AltcoinArdi) October 8, 2025
Technical outlook helps Bitcoin’s upward potential
Technical indicators additionally seem to assist a bullish bias within the close to time period.
In line with market evaluation, Bitcoin’s key assist stage stands at $120,899, with rapid resistance at $124,148 and the next goal of $126,021.
The cryptocurrency is presently buying and selling above all main exponential shifting averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), signalling sturdy upward momentum.
Projections are that Bitcoin may attain round $121,633 within the coming days, with longer-term forecasts setting bold value targets of $221,485 for 2025.
