Constancy’s Jurrien Timmer mentioned Bitcoin might have accomplished one other halving cycle in each value and time, and he positioned help within the $65,000–$75,000 zone.
Sharing a “Bitcoin analogs” chart, the Constancy director of world macro wrote,
“Whereas I stay a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin might effectively have ended one other 4-year cycle halving part, each in value and time.”
He added that October’s excessive close to $125,000 match historic bull-market alignments and that “Bitcoin winters have lasted a few 12 months,” making 2026 a possible “12 months off.”
Bitcoin analogs level to a late-cycle cooling part as time catches up with value
The chart bands Bitcoin’s historical past into bull (inexperienced blocks) and drawdown (pink blocks) regimes, then overlays prior-cycle “prime analogs” (notably 2013 and 2017) to map how late-cycle advances have tended to roll right into a cooling window.
Its core message is that the time element has saved tempo with the worth element.
Prior peaks cluster right into a topping window adopted by a retracement part that may run near a 12 months, which is why Timmer tied his name to each the rally’s period and the height’s stage.
That setup overlaps with a late-cycle framework specified by CryptoSlate’s cycle-clock evaluation, which tracked a 2025 peak window by making use of prior halving-to-top timing (about 526 days after the 2016 halving and about 546 days after the 2020 halving).
In that mapping, Bitcoin’s Oct. 6 print close to $126,200 arrived contained in the projected window.
It was adopted by stalled follow-through and broad-range commerce, with key help close to $108,000.
More moderen tape has examined whether or not the post-peak part is popping right into a deeper reset.
A liquidity and positioning learn famous Bitcoin’s Nov. 4 dip to about $99,075 and described the transfer as a structural reset amid tighter liquidity and weaker willingness to take care of leveraged longs.
The identical report cited CheckOnChain estimates of roughly $34 billion in month-to-month sell-side stress as older cash returned to exchanges into softer demand.
It additionally highlighted a cost-basis focus, with about 63% of invested capital above $95,000, a stage merchants monitor for holder conduct and suggestions loops from pressured promoting.
Indicators of a post-peak reset, and the way deep it might go
Timmer’s $65,000–$75,000 band additionally falls contained in the drawdown math introduced in CryptoSlate’s bear-band mannequin.
The framework notes that prior bear markets have lasted 12 to 18 months, with peak-to-trough declines of round 57% in 2018 and 76% in 2014.
It then argues that ETFs and deeper derivatives might change the trail whereas leaving room for significant draw back.
Utilizing a 35%–55% drawdown band from $126,272 yields a trough zone round $82,000–$57,000, a bracket that comprises Timmer’s help zone and ties it to a clear vary relatively than a single level goal.
The identical math implies a low window that might land in late 2026 into early 2027 if the reset follows historic period bands.
2026 scenarioWhat it seems likePrice zoneWhat to look at“Off-year” winter (Timmer)Vary commerce, decrease highs, liquidation wicks$75k–$65k (contained in the ~$82k–$57k drawdown band)ETF flows keep blended to unfavourable, repeated help exams, tight liquidityShallower resetDrawdown, then uneven base-buildingUpper half of the ~$82k–$57k band, drifting towards the mid-$60ksOutflows stabilize, actual yields ease, fewer pressured sellersTail-risk deleveragingFast unwind with stress narratives taking holdBelow the band, with a $49k print outlined in a single draw back thesisPersistently weak demand, heavier trade inflows, impaired threat appetiteCycle extensionRe-acceleration after reclaiming damaged levelsBack above the prior vary, difficult the post-ATH ceilingDemand reversal by flows and breakout conduct, fading promote stress
The most important level of competition is whether or not the four-year template stays a workable baseline or whether or not market construction has diluted it.
In feedback on the cycle’s fading affect, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that ETFs, broader institutional entry, and regulatory progress have diminished the boom-bust mechanics that when outlined the cycle.
He expects ETF-driven adoption to play out over an extended horizon, a view that clashes with the concept of 2026 as a chosen “off-year.”
Why 2026’s macro backdrop might flip ETF flows into Bitcoin’s dominant value driver
Even when cycle timing weakens, macro situations can nonetheless form the trail as a result of they affect ETF circulation conduct.
A 2026 macro outlook cited Financial institution of America’s base case for two.4% US actual GDP development in 2026 and a charges regime easing towards the mid-3% vary by end-2026, a backdrop that may preserve actual yields mildly optimistic.
The identical piece famous that Bitcoin ETFs can swing by greater than $1 billion in a day, making ETF flows a main transmission channel for shifts in yields and the greenback into spot demand.
For 2026, the near-term resolution factors cluster round the place holders’ and flows’ help meet.
The $95,000 cost-basis shelf frames a primary stress check for positioning, whereas the $76,000 help map sits close to the highest of Timmer’s band and contained in the broader drawdown bracket.
Timmer’s analog framing is that if the final part led to each value and time, the subsequent part is a winter that may final a few 12 months, with help centered within the $65,000–$75,000 area.
