Polymarket, the main decentralized crypto prediction platform, faces backlash after resolving a politically charged market that immediately conflicts with real-world developments.
On March 25, Polymarket finalized a $7 million market that requested whether or not US President Donald Trump would safe a uncommon earth minerals settlement with Ukraine by the top of March.
Regardless of no such deal being confirmed, the platform resolved the market in favor of the declare, inflicting a backlash amongst customers.
The result raised critical issues in regards to the integrity of its Oracle system and the dangers of token-based governance.
What occurred?
Accessible studies recommend that the flawed decision stemmed from the manipulation of Polymarket’s oracle accomplice, UMA Protocol.
Wu Blockchain reported {that a} single whale allegedly used three wallets to forged 5 million UMA tokens—roughly 25% of the votes. This gave the person outsized affect over the ultimate determination.
UMA operates as an optimistic oracle. It permits token holders to vote on disputed outcomes, and people with extra tokens have larger voting energy.
Whereas this method helps decentralization, it additionally opens the door to manipulation—particularly when voter turnout is low. This implies it wouldn’t take a lot capital to swing outcomes, primarily when the oracle governs bigger liquidity swimming pools.
0xngmi, DefiLlama’s pseudonymous founder, highlighted this danger, noting that 51% of UMA’s market cap stands at $63 million, which is dwarfed by Polymarket’s $120 million in complete worth locked.
In line with 0xngmi, this imbalance exposes the system to danger, as a comparatively small stake in UMA can management outcomes affecting way more vital sums.
Polymarket and UMA response
Polymarket acknowledged the difficulty and described the occasion as “unprecedented.”
The platform stated its inside groups and UMA have been working across the clock to analyze and implement safeguards.
A spokesperson for the platform acknowledged:
“This isn’t part of the long run we need to construct: we’ll construct up programs, monitoring, and extra to verify this doesn’t repeat itself.”
Regardless of requires refunds, Polymarket clarified that the market was resolved in keeping with protocol, and customers wouldn’t be reimbursed.
UMA echoed Polymarket’s stance and confirmed each groups are reviewing the case carefully. They promised future enhancements to guard market integrity and rebuild consumer belief.
The platform added:
“We’re working with Polymarket to enhance the consumer expertise for each oracle and market contributors.”
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